tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51641737571587260052024-03-06T07:49:24.969+01:00Bellini MarketsAnĂ¡lisis de los Mercados Financieros, Trading y Estrategias con OpcionesBellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.comBlogger127125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-81863377801698616782019-07-07T20:39:00.001+02:002019-07-07T20:39:18.354+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis July 2019Boring market for Options Sellers. VIX is low, no oversolds conditions, nothing to do as yet.<br />
Would it be interestid to Buy some options for once? It is something on my thoughts.<br />
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We let expire the options entered on June, making us +4.06% up YTD, far bellow the <b> SPX +19.29%</b><br />
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<b><br /></b>Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-3297616176017948812019-06-02T20:40:00.001+02:002019-06-02T20:40:37.122+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis June 2019<b>SPX </b>has dropped 200 points since May post. Markets are no doubt oversold looking at the Estotastics. 200 EMA has been perfored and real support is as far as 2350 level, Would expect the market to explore 260 and find some support there (50% Fib from the lows and zone where has been reactions on the past)<br />
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We opened a <b>Put Spread SPX 28th June 2540/50</b> on 16th May as soon as SPX were in oversold position. 4 weeks til expiration now. We follow and baby sit accordingly.<br />
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Taking a look to the volatility index $VIX we see trand to higher levels, so will aim to see 2650 to enter new positions for August and SeptemberBellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-6055155615659143532019-05-05T21:17:00.001+02:002019-05-05T21:17:25.490+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis May 2019<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Trebuchet MS, Trebuchet, sans-serif;">A year to forget so far. SPX and Russell have been non stop raising giving us no oversold condition to enter a Put Spread</span><div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Trebuchet MS, Trebuchet, sans-serif;">Russell 2000 did on March but we didnt take the wave.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Trebuchet MS, Trebuchet, sans-serif;">SPX didnt get to oversold condition over 2019 so far. we went close twice, but again we didnt take the opportunity</span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Trebuchet MS, Trebuchet, sans-serif;">$VIX looks can even get more lower, so nothing to do in the markets, just wait and wait to the right moment.</span></div>
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Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-41120361979891061782019-03-03T21:13:00.001+01:002019-03-03T21:13:12.727+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis March 2019Just to months of 2019 and <b>SPX </b>up +11.84 YTD and <b>RUT </b>+17.88%. Markets have to given us any oversold condition to open new Put Spreads. Market can go up another 10% more, but we would not enter neew positions until we get an oversold on momentum indicators<br />
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So no activity over February<br />
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SPX Chart<br />
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$VIX<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-56430817018036625572019-02-02T18:58:00.000+01:002019-02-02T18:58:03.639+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis February 2019After the storm a relentless rise on the US Markets. <b>SPX +7.97%</b> and <b>Russell +11.38%</b> have signed one of the best start of the year ever. Can these last for ever? who knows but we should expect ups and downs over the year. For these reason we should enter new Put Spreads once the oversold indicators tell us so. We wont enter Call Spreads as the market can go up and up with no force to defend them.<br />
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January gave as full Premium on de Spreads opened in December while defending the postion then.<br />
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No open positions right now, and we will wait for a corretion to open new positions:<br />
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VIX is folling, marjets raising forming a V formation. We could agree we are in an overbought momentum, but will wait and wait and wait for an oversold situation to deploy new Put Spreads<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-67867709216465951992019-01-01T21:54:00.003+01:002019-01-01T21:54:40.486+01:002018 Bellini Portfolio AnalysisEvrything was going smoothly and following a good plan till December crash started. Think we played conservatively along the year, and that should be the strategy for 2019. Barely any Call Spreads were deployed and all the position were open on <b>Put Spreads</b> when a spike on the VIX occured and an oversold on momentum indicators.<br />
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A return <b>+2.81</b> for the year is good compared to the SPX, but would have been near double digit if the sold-off would happened. The management of the <b>Dec31 2370/80</b> was poor, if only I would stop out earlier when it got to 30 deltas! , but with such few days till expiration didnt want to materialise the looses. bad decision as I finally did, a day before it soared.<br />
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Markets have reacted to the exuberances of last bull years, too abruptly tho. Think we have approached a short term support on the <b>200 EMA</b> weekly and long term trendline. Lets see where the markets go from here<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-86068362541596030502018-12-02T18:44:00.000+01:002018-12-02T18:44:23.697+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 2nd December 2018We added nice 2.12% we last week expires to the portfolio making a nice +8.314% YTD for 2018.<br />
Markets seem to go easy for the rest of the year after a strong week +4.85%.<br />
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December trades only one Put Spread open, far out the money looking very safe<br />
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No intention on adding positions for December, will look to add first January trades on the 10 Deltas next week, still $VIX has not tumbled<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-124196520047614672018-11-03T09:40:00.000+01:002018-11-03T09:40:05.367+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 2nd November 2018I would like to say I saw it coming. Again, another Octuber, markets SOLD-OFF.<br />
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I had only one position in RUT OCT PS 1550/1560at 0.7 that had to defence closing it at 2.04. When I enetered this trade the RUT was marking oversold condition already, but in the next 3 weeks the index dropped another 12%<br />
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Currently both SPX and RUT are in positive for the 2018 but poorly<br />
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We dont know if we are on the start of a Bear market, but have taken the opportunity to credit with more PS in Nov and Dec, all markets were oversold and VIX in max.<br />
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I expect the markets to consolidate around current levels for next week, my positions look safe so far.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-21152451493468512392018-09-02T19:29:00.000+02:002018-09-02T19:29:01.119+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 2nd September 2018Summer is coming to an end and so our two Put Spreads deployed at the begining of the month giving us a nice <b>1.839%</b> gain to our 2018 performance.<br />
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So SPX 2018 YTD is 8.52% and Bellini is close by at <b>8.079%</b>. So far so good, market is playing neutral with a bullish bias. We would need to see a bit of selling before deploying any new Put Spread. Not feeling confident on initiating a Casll Spread either, as if market keeps going up could be painful to defend.<br />
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There is no positions opened<br />
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Planning for the week is only entering new positions is Stochastics point a bit down in nearing 50, and VIX going up to the 16s<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-50506476624963642372018-08-05T09:54:00.004+02:002018-08-05T09:54:52.526+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 5th August 2018Only six months ago we were talking of where the support would held the sharp fall of the SPX. Now the index is at two tics of making new highs ever.<br />
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After Friday movements SPX is looking determined to achieve 2900<br />
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We have only played Put Spreads on a very conservative way this year, and will continuo to do so. July is over and we received full premium on the PS 2555/65 SPX at 0.7 opnend 3rd july.<br />
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These week we have opened two new positions both in the August cycle. Both are 10 Delta and just four weeks to expiration.<br />
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Looking to VIX market has still room to go up, as the volatility index has room to keep falling<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-87534198788077854422018-06-03T09:27:00.002+02:002018-06-03T09:27:31.354+02:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis June 3rd 2018Even for a passive options seller investor is hard to find time to sit down in front of the computer and write during ten minutes over the weekend..<br />
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Markets have been up and down over last two months, giving opportunities to sell options well far out the money.<br />
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Our performance is modest but in line with SPX, however the Russell, is making great performance.<br />
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Currently have only one open trade, <b>June 2350/2375</b> looking safe, not much baby sitting there, hopefully<br />
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Neeed to start looking for adding a July expiry put spread, around 2500 should be the strike.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-49981251086773881762018-03-19T09:31:00.001+01:002018-03-19T09:31:56.728+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 19th march 2018A lot of volatility happened after last site entry. $VIX hiked levels not seen in years.<br />
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We start opening positions once market started moving down, however we have to adjust Mar 2630/2640 PS with a <b>-3.529%</b> lost.<br />
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Currently we have April 2350/2360 PS looking very safe, the idea is to close position at -0.05 and open a new April PS to cash some more premium<br />
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Momentum wise market seems a bit overbought, not the best timing to open May PUT SPREADS.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-6819647463495363362018-02-04T15:45:00.002+01:002018-02-04T15:45:51.154+01:00Options Strategy Monthly Analysis 4th February 2018Finally $VIX waked up from its long lethargy.<br />
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We have been waiting to see the levels on <b>$VIX</b> to start opening Put Spreads, as we have been so killed by Credit Call Spreads in 2017 we were not going to play that game for a while.<br />
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We entered on Tuesday our first Credit Spread, not the best timing as we should wait a few days but if we knew the future we were alreadty retired and spending winter in Naples Florida.<br />
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We entered <b>March 23 PS 2630/40</b> at 0.8, now need a bit of babysitting as Friday Risk off send this position to 23 Deltas. Still got 48 days for expiration so we would adjust once SPX closes bellow 2715.<br />
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On Friday markets sold off and we took opportunity opening February postitions both in $SPX and $RUT.<br />
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<b>$SPX Feb 23 2560/70</b> at 0.5 with 10 Deltas and just 20 days for expiration and <b>$RUT 1450/60 Feb 23</b> at 0.77 also at 10 Deltas. We will adjust the SPX if closes bellow 2700 and the Russell if goes beloow 1500.<br />
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We have interest on opening also a new position in April taking oportunity of high volatility. I beieve markets are having a healthy small corretion after such a storng move up.<br />
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Russell 2000<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-72968500238482544702017-12-31T09:46:00.001+01:002017-12-31T09:46:05.799+01:002017 Bellini Portfolio Analysis<b>2017</b> comes to an end, and is time to review our selling options spreads strategy to creat wealth, and constant monthly returns.<br />
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The year started with a bad 1Q, -4% resul that was well managed ending 3Q with a healthy +10% YTD.<br />
However 4Q was a terrible quarter mainly due to the strengh of the american market, and the wrong strategy of selling CALL SPREADS instead of selling PUT SPREADS.<br />
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Final result is <b>-1.135%</b> 2017.<br />
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If we compare the result with SPX +19.42% looks like a poor 2017 strategy.<br />
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Nonetheless we will keep selling spreads for 2018 and we will mantain our aim to be year and yar profitable at least pocketing a 10% return till retirenment.<br />
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Will keep educating in order to be able to trade as succesfull as one of my inspirations <span style="color: blue;">@lazytrading</span> and recently joined his LT Options Course<br />
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<span style="color: #0b5394;"> https://ltoptions.com</span><br />
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Currently have no open trades for 2018, needed to recover my trading emotions after current losses. Expect a bullish 201 as well, but markets will consolidate at one point where most od my trading should be done.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-17799182147482859012017-10-31T10:03:00.002+01:002017-10-31T10:03:27.548+01:00Monthly Portfolio Analysis 31st Octuber 2017<b>SPX </b>keep going up for another moth, <b>+2.12 %</b> at end 30th Octuber, making selling Credit Spreads a risky business in 2017. SPX YTD +14.92% and RTY +9.86% supports the idea better strategy this 2017 has been passive investment so far.<br />
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We had to manage and protect the CS Nov30th 2575/2560, resulting in an over all lost <b>-7.49%</b>.<br />
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Volatiliy keeps extreamly low, not giving much opportunities for selling Put Spreads.<br />
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In an attempt to minimize the CS 2575/2600 lost we have opened<br />
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4 RUT Nov CS 1570/1580 at 0.96<br />
3 SPX Nov PS 2425/2450 at 1.1<br />
3 SPX Dec PS 2425/2450 at 2<br />
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We still have opened Dec 3 CS 2625/2650 looking badly with still two months to go.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-37457976909068127062017-09-30T19:59:00.000+02:002017-09-30T19:59:03.876+02:00Monthly Portfolio Analysis 30 September 2017Summer is officialy over, and although I was waiting for a rise in volatility and a mini sell off the truth is markets didn't take my advice and here we are at hew highs ever.<br />
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Markets are still doing great <b>SPX YTD 12.53%</b> and RTY is up +9.85%. <b>Bellini is doing well, +10.304%</b> after adding 4.23% on the last 4 weeks.<br />
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We received maximum Premium on <b>Put Spread 2275/2300</b> and we closed two Credit Spreads Sep 2550/2575 at 0.4 and Oct 2575/2600 at 0.35.<br />
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We have also opened new spreads for November and December cycles.<br />
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Latest movement up at 2519 is getting in trouble CS Nov30 2575/2600. we have also opened PS at 2350/75 to help protect the CS.<br />
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Volatility is at its lows once again, supporting the idea of a stop and breath to the market<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-61161739411208324422017-09-03T15:06:00.002+02:002017-09-03T15:06:56.613+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 2nd September 2017August is over, no harm in the markets despite a promising star, when $VIX woke up for a bit, opportunity took to open positions that are starting to pay off now.<br />
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Last Friday we received full premium on the Aug Iron Condor 2550/2525/2325/2300, adding a nice 2.87% to 2017 YTD results.<br />
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So far, positions opened are looking good, looking to add Put Spreads both Octuber and November if on the following days we see a short term over sold in the SPX<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-56702950429843540872017-08-12T09:46:00.000+02:002017-08-12T09:46:01.964+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 12th August 2017As we were saying last weekend August is a month of historically high volatility, and the Thursday sell off backed the records.<br />
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$VIX woke up from the lows and reached a nice 17 mark, opportunity to start opening new positions even I would have love to see the momentum indicators a bit more oversold.<br />
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I entered 3 new Spreads, two PS and and one CS<br />
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<b>PS $SPX 3 Aug31 2300/2325 @ 1.6</b><br />
<b>PS $SPX 3 Sep29 2275/2300 @ 2</b><br />
<b>CS $SPX 3 Oct31 2575/2600 @ 1.8</b><br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-57542940367329684482017-08-06T16:14:00.003+02:002017-08-06T16:14:58.934+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 6th August 2017My market memories of the month of August are similar to Octuber, months were volatility heats up and market corrections spreads all over the world.<br />
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Its true $VIX is still low, but at least is over 10 now, and there is many days left yet till the end of the month.<br />
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Our 2017 performance <b>+2.03%</b> is well bellow what the $SPX is showing <b>+10.63%</b> but not that far from what the Russell 2000 is showing just up <b>+4.07%</b> YTD.<br />
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Looking at our standing positions, we have two Bear Call Spreads one for August one for September both at 10 Deltas looking OK<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-24345281111388761122017-06-17T10:10:00.001+02:002017-06-17T17:36:41.220+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 17th June 2017Not much activity lately, SPX is moving in a narrow range, not sure where it will go, but the bullish market is as strong as last 12 months.<br />
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The reason I have not opened any new position is the low premium I would get, we are in a very low Volatility environment.<br />
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Just one trade opened, which I will receive maximum premium in 2 weeks time. Will wait to see a bit of volatility before thinking on selling spreads.<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-85169604857579717302017-05-14T18:27:00.000+02:002017-05-14T18:27:08.917+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 14th May 2017These are the days where no trading might leave a few bucks out the table but can safe us a lot of potential pain.<div>
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With $VIX on the 10 zone making a life out of selling options premiums is a tough job</div>
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Markets are doing good and we see potential to keep doing as good for the rest of the year</div>
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We are still with these 2 open trades, with just 15 days to go May CS 2450/2475 need to be monotorised hope will expire full profit. June CS 2550/2575 looks preatty safe.</div>
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Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-28403321613667233432017-04-30T16:14:00.002+02:002017-04-30T16:15:30.831+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 28th April 2017Markets reached again the highest levels of history, although reading media looks like the world is about to end markets dont stop doing well.SPX is up +6.46% 2107 and RTY is up +3.19%<br />
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April is over and we received maximum profits on the SPX IC, adding 3.557% profits, 2017 YTD <b><span style="color: red;">-0.51%</span></b><br />
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We have 2 Call Spreads opened, May and June, all at 10 Deltas looking OK for the moment. Would like to see a bit of correction in the market to open a Put Spread both June and July. Also lookinh to open a Call Spread July<br />
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Markets are overbought, and VIX is again at minimum levels, would not be surprised a bit of orrection making the Put Spreads trades more appeailling<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-34247946901497450752017-04-02T11:47:00.003+02:002017-04-02T11:47:53.701+02:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 2nd April 2017Finding time to share my trading in this blog is being as diificul as having the discipline to open trades on the right time and closing trades were we place the paper stop on the first time.<br />
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As a wannabe trader discipline is the hardest I have came across and is telling me a lot about myself.<br />
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The Trump rally has harmed a lot any Call Spread seller strategy. Bellini 2107 performance is at <span style="color: red;">-4.061%, </span><span style="background-color: white;">while SP500 is up +5.53%.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">Currently these are our opened positions:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">All positions are less than 10 Deltas, so looking safe. We would like to open an IRON CONDOR for the May cycle. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Around 2180/2460 stikes are my target.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">Regarding SPX we bilieve the index still looking Bull but is time to get support on the 200 EMA after so much time.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-5127102951966289022017-02-26T20:33:00.001+01:002017-02-26T20:33:49.420+01:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis 26 February 2017They say markets never go up vertically, but a vertical move since Trump victory is all we have experienced.<br />
Nothing moves up forever but we have no certainity a correction could be soon in time.<br />
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The trend is bullish, with a 2450 target, any correction should be an opportunity to get bull in the market.<br />
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Our positions, 2 Iron Condor one in March and other in April.<br />
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With 30 Deltas the March Call Spread is not looking good, just 1.7% away for being at the money. An adjustment and protection should be added to the strategy.Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5164173757158726005.post-18984177965668120612017-02-05T18:02:00.004+01:002017-02-05T18:13:12.551+01:00Weekly Portfolio Analysis: February 5th 2017January is finally over, the year starts with a positive <b>2.62%</b> for the SPX. Our Bellini portfolio cash in full premium on the CCS 2350/2375 making the porfolio up <b>+1.23% YTD</b>.<br />
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Currently we have two positions opened, one in February cycle and the other in March.<br />
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<b>Sold 3 CCS Feb28th 2325/2300</b> with 30 Delta not looking particularly good, with just 23 days for expiry.<br />
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<b>Sold 3 CCS Mar30th 2425/2450</b> with 9 Deltas looking safe.<br />
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I should defend February trade even Theta is on my favor. Moving the Spread 50 points higher should be the aim.<br />
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Furthermor looking to add som CPS to March expiry in order to receive premium and diversify direction.<br />
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Finally start looking to open positions 2450/2100 IC on the April cycle.<br />
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$VIX in minimums should we wait to sell CPS on levels near 20<br />
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$SPX still in the uptrend, lets wait to corrections to get bull strategies<br />
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<br />Bellini Marketshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07308580101950960487noreply@blogger.com1