Just to months of 2019 and SPX up +11.84 YTD and RUT +17.88%. Markets have to given us any oversold condition to open new Put Spreads. Market can go up another 10% more, but we would not enter neew positions until we get an oversold on momentum indicators
After the storm a relentless rise on the US Markets. SPX +7.97% and Russell +11.38% have signed one of the best start of the year ever. Can these last for ever? who knows but we should expect ups and downs over the year. For these reason we should enter new Put Spreads once the oversold indicators tell us so. We wont enter Call Spreads as the market can go up and up with no force to defend them.
January gave as full Premium on de Spreads opened in December while defending the postion then.
No open positions right now, and we will wait for a corretion to open new positions:
VIX is folling, marjets raising forming a V formation. We could agree we are in an overbought momentum, but will wait and wait and wait for an oversold situation to deploy new Put Spreads
Evrything was going smoothly and following a good plan till December crash started. Think we played conservatively along the year, and that should be the strategy for 2019. Barely any Call Spreads were deployed and all the position were open on Put Spreads when a spike on the VIX occured and an oversold on momentum indicators.
A return +2.81 for the year is good compared to the SPX, but would have been near double digit if the sold-off would happened. The management of the Dec31 2370/80 was poor, if only I would stop out earlier when it got to 30 deltas! , but with such few days till expiration didnt want to materialise the looses. bad decision as I finally did, a day before it soared.
Markets have reacted to the exuberances of last bull years, too abruptly tho. Think we have approached a short term support on the 200 EMA weekly and long term trendline. Lets see where the markets go from here
I would like to say I saw it coming. Again, another Octuber, markets SOLD-OFF.
I had only one position in RUT OCT PS 1550/1560at 0.7 that had to defence closing it at 2.04. When I enetered this trade the RUT was marking oversold condition already, but in the next 3 weeks the index dropped another 12%
Currently both SPX and RUT are in positive for the 2018 but poorly
We dont know if we are on the start of a Bear market, but have taken the opportunity to credit with more PS in Nov and Dec, all markets were oversold and VIX in max.
I expect the markets to consolidate around current levels for next week, my positions look safe so far.
Summer is coming to an end and so our two Put Spreads deployed at the begining of the month giving us a nice 1.839% gain to our 2018 performance.
So SPX 2018 YTD is 8.52% and Bellini is close by at 8.079%. So far so good, market is playing neutral with a bullish bias. We would need to see a bit of selling before deploying any new Put Spread. Not feeling confident on initiating a Casll Spread either, as if market keeps going up could be painful to defend.
There is no positions opened
Planning for the week is only entering new positions is Stochastics point a bit down in nearing 50, and VIX going up to the 16s