We are coming off an oversold condition on the context of a
a) Bear Market
b) Bullish Market.
There is much debate on this out there and is not an easy answer.
If we believe the SPX was inside an uptrend channel since Oct 2012 this has been broken to the downside as seen in the bellow chart. However the SPX has not clear made a proper lower low on the weekly side, this low is Oct 2014 one.
SPX did a decent week moving up +1.04% and Russell ended down just -0.77% SPX is YTD -5.22% while our Bellini portfolio is +5.785%
We have not been able to add any new position this week, even we where on an oversold position that could have been good opportunity to add a PS on Oct or Nov.
Current opened positions look as follows
Bull SPX Oct15 1775/85 at 0.5 looks safe now at 96% probability of success with 12 days left to expiry
Bull SPX Nov15 1560/70 at 0.4 preatty much the same at 97% of ending out the money with 47 days left.
Bull RUT Dec15 930/40 at 0.8 with 90% is the only once to be a little more concern but still looking safe.
For the week we might start to see an end of the year rally? who know but we could sell PS on any dip in the rally.
Volatility is slowing down and might get to regulat levels bellow 20
SPX has rebound from the end August lows, and might find resistance at 1960 before going to 2000 again.
RUY might find resistance at 1130 before going to 1170