Weekly Portfolio Analysis, 16th january 2016

Another Risk Off week. On Monday I stoped loss all my dodgy positions suffering disastrous losses in the account. All 2015 gains are evaporated.

Not hedging trades when we where on over bought and low volatility conditions has been the first mistake. Opening trades when the markets where falling as a sharp knive is the second mistake. I have had to close positions after 3 days from entry.

I have to thank I close the trades as they would be now in the money and threatening to blow up the account.

SPX fell -2.17% this week and YTD is down -8%. RUT is down -3.68% and 2015 YTD is -11.28%

Bellini is 2015 YTD -8.507% after commissions.

.

5 SPX Feb15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.7 with 20 deltas  and 80% of success. 6.73% bellow current markets levels and  33 from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

5 SPX Mar15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.8 with 25 deltas  and 75% of success. 6.73% bellow current markets levels and  61 days from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

2 SPX Mayo 31st PS 1475/1500 credit 1.95 with 11 deltas and  89% of success and 20% ddistance to be ITM, and  135  days left to expiry, looking ok.

Markets might be in support and a rebounce is likely. Vix, outside bolinger band is in resistance

SPX has support at 1860 and trend line from 2013.

RUT has support in 980. Has declisne 20% from Dec highs. Has been bearish with 3 clear movements, so lets say the probability of a rebound is likely now