Weekly Portfolio Analysis 21st February 2016

Markets had a strong week, SPX up +2.84% and RUT gained +3.91%. YTD SPX is down -6.17% and RUT -11.26%. Our Bellini portfolio gaines the full credit on the CP Feb16 1745/55 adding +1.089% to the poor YTD -7.41%.

Our current opened trades are showing small gains,
March CPS 5 SPX 1745/55 a 0.8 with Delta 10. looking ok , 26 left to  expiry and  8% distance current level.
May CPS 2 1475/500 with Delta 6, looking good, 100 days for maturity. 21% distance current level.
Also we got speculative 202 Call SPY April16.

VIX continuous failling from resistance, looking to help SPX to keep bullish next week. AN IC on June 1500/2150 will be our priority as adding an April position , 1680 ish

SPX looking to confirm a double bottom if 1950 levels are reached, next resistamce is on 2000.

Russell also trying to rebounce, stil has not confirm a higher high , higher low.

@bellinimarkets

Weekly Porfolio Analysis 13th February 2016

Markets ended the week in better mood after a terrible start, but still in red numbers tho.

SPX fall -0.81% and RUT -1.38%.

YTD SPX is down -8.77% and RTY down -14.43%. Our Portfolio is still in big negative territory at -8.507%

Our positions are still as following

5 SPX Feb15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.7 with 4 deltas  and 96% of success. 6.40% bellow current markets levels and  5 days from expiry. Safe.

5 SPX Mar15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.8 with 22deltas  and 78% of success. 6.40%  bellow current markets levels and 33 days from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

2 SPX Mayo 31st PS 1475/1500 credit 1.95 with 10 deltas and  90% of success and 19.47% ddistance to be ITM, and  107 days left to expiry, looking ok.

Vix has stop rising at resistace, so for the following week we could expecto some lower volatility.

 SPX is trying to bonce from support in 1820. and 200 EMA on the weekly chart. Looks like a big support but is not the frist time being attacked, if broken further falls could make the markets shink.

Same for Russell, although might have still bit of room to fall and is trading already bellow 200 EMA.

@bellinimarkets

Weekly Portfolio Analysis 23rd january 2016

Markets ended the week giving us a bit of breath. The SPX and RUT fell sharply again and SPX finally rebound at 2014 Oct support  1800 ish.

SPX is up +1.41% for the week and RUT up +0.71%. YTD SPX is down -7.57%  and RUT-10.14%. Bellini portfolio shows a poor -8.507%

I was praying (not good for trading) markets will bounce at 1812 where a 200 EMA on a weekly chart plus the 2014Oct lows could be a massive support. My March positions were showing 35 deltas and everthying was pointing to stop loss and add more grief to 2016.

I didnt fell adding more risk to the downsize after suffering so much, but wanting some exposure in case we head up a bir, the dead cat bounce, so I bought 2 SPY April 202 Calls for 1.43

5 SPX Feb15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.7 with 13 deltas  and 87% of success. 7.95% bellow current markets levels and  27 days from expiry. Safer than last week.

5 SPX Mar15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.8 with 20 deltas  and 80% of success. 7.95%  bellow current markets levels and  55 days from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

2 SPX Mayo 31st PS 1475/1500 credit 1.95 with 9 deltas and  91% of success and 21% ddistance to be ITM, and  129 days left to expiry, looking ok.

$VIX has stoped it up movement

SPX has found support, and we expect a correction back up to fib levels from last swing.

RUT also completed 3 down movements and we expect some bull movements in the following weeks.

Weekly Portfolio Analysis, 16th january 2016

Another Risk Off week. On Monday I stoped loss all my dodgy positions suffering disastrous losses in the account. All 2015 gains are evaporated.

Not hedging trades when we where on over bought and low volatility conditions has been the first mistake. Opening trades when the markets where falling as a sharp knive is the second mistake. I have had to close positions after 3 days from entry.

I have to thank I close the trades as they would be now in the money and threatening to blow up the account.

SPX fell -2.17% this week and YTD is down -8%. RUT is down -3.68% and 2015 YTD is -11.28%

Bellini is 2015 YTD -8.507% after commissions.

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5 SPX Feb15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.7 with 20 deltas  and 80% of success. 6.73% bellow current markets levels and  33 from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

5 SPX Mar15 PS 1745/55 credit 0.8 with 25 deltas  and 75% of success. 6.73% bellow current markets levels and  61 days from expiry. We have to keep an eye on it.

2 SPX Mayo 31st PS 1475/1500 credit 1.95 with 11 deltas and  89% of success and 20% ddistance to be ITM, and  135  days left to expiry, looking ok.

Markets might be in support and a rebounce is likely. Vix, outside bolinger band is in resistance

SPX has support at 1860 and trend line from 2013.

RUT has support in 980. Has declisne 20% from Dec highs. Has been bearish with 3 clear movements, so lets say the probability of a rebound is likely now

Weekly Portfolio Analysis: 9th january 2016

Risk off across the board. The fact there is no a real reason for this sell off really worries me. Worst stock market sart of a new year ever.

Last week I was a happy camper waiting to cash in my January expires. Now I might loose on all my trades.
I opened new positions at the begining of the week with are in red now and need adjustment.

First mistakes not taking serious de sell off and not buying PUT for protections

Our current opened positions looks as follows

Depending on how opens wall street on Monday we could suffer terrible looses.

January Expires in 5 days and we are with Delta 21 and just 3% of being in the money. Adjustment is needed, better to suffer a loss that to bigger regreats.

February trades are even worst, SPX 1860/70 has Delta 36 and should have been moved away last week and only 2.5% being in the money. Then RUT 980/90 with delta 27%.

March position is not better with Delta 24 and 7.6% away of being in the money.

I will try to open Feb positions in SPX once closed current ones at 1650 levels to offset looses

VIX is looking for higher levels that means further looses in the markets.

SPX is in sell off and dont see support till 1900 and then 1870 lows last summer. Current YTD -5.96%

Same RUT that is falling like a knife, -7.90% in 2016.

@bellinimarkets

2015 Trading Recap

2015 is over, first year publicly sharing all my trades live in twitter @bellinimarkets and in this site weekly reporting the state of the account, at least I tried.

For 2016 got more ambitious returns and as well on reporting thanks to The Lazy Trading competition for fun.

http://www.the-lazy-trader.com/p/trading-competition_12.html

Lets review the markets, these is the performance for the main ones:

Our Bellini portfolio ended after comissions up +7.87%. Decent result for our first reporting year.

We only had two negatives months, thanks to the mini crash of August. We have been extremely conservatives and we will try to do the same in 2016 although with the aim to target an 1.5% average return monthly.

I've been thinking about my future lately, what will happen when my employer decide is time to let the way to the childrens of today. I think I read this numbers from The Lazy Trader few months ago, and I am going to work hard to get this achieved to retire well

Big thank you to my trading pals for their inspiration to my goals

 @bellinimarkets 

Weekly Portfolio Analysis 27th December 2015

And the Xmas rally is here at least!!   the markets soared this week making the SPX up +2.76% and the RUT +2.77%. Yield to date SPX is up 0.10% and RUT -4.15%. With only 5 days remaining to year end Bellini is up +9.72% before comissions.

Currently there is only 2 positions opened, both PS on SPX and RUT. Looking good with no concern over 98% probability of success

Markets are in no man land, so we will try to open Feb16 positiones with Iron Condors well OTM

Both SPX and RUT seem to be moving inside a range market.